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A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the “Primary Model,” an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

The Primary Model, which Norpoth introduced in 1996, predicts that Trump will win the 2020 election by a wider margin than in 2016. The model, which was one of the few prognosticators that foretold a Trump win in 2016, expects to see Trump claim 362 electoral votes in the 2020 election, much higher than the 304 he won when he ran against Hillary Clinton.

The two elections that the Primary Model got wrong in the past 108 years were John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when he won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote.

The Primary Model calculates a candidate’s chance of winning elections based on performance in early primaries.

Biden kicked off his campaign by finishing fourth in Iowa’s caucuses with 15.8% of the vote, placed fifth in New Hampshire with only 8.4% of the vote, and came in second place in Nevada with 18.9% of the vote. The former vice president then pulled off a decisive win in South Carolina on Feb. 29, followed by major victories in Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Virginia on Super Tuesday to cement him as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination.

However, Biden’s early losses punctuate a lack of enthusiasm at the beginning of his campaign, a factor the Primary Model puts a lot of stock in. “If you can get people to come out for a primary that isn’t even a contest, you have them hooked,” Norpoth said.

Meanwhile, Trump has enjoyed renewed energy during the primaries.

“But in 23 of the 27 states that held primaries both this year and in 2012, when President Obama ran for re-election, Trump has racked up higher raw vote totals than Obama did — often doubling or tripling his predecessor’s numbers,” the New York Post reported in June.

The Primary Model’s prediction of a Trump landslide in the 2020 election tells a much different story from recent national polls.

Biden leads Trump by four percentage points according to a Hill-HarrisX general election poll released on Wednesday. An Economist/YouGov poll from this week found that Biden leads Trump by nine points.

Biden holds a 12-point lead in the presidential race, according to a Monmouth University poll released last week. A CNN poll from June had the presumptive Democratic nominee with a commanding 14-point lead over President Trump.

An election prediction model released by Oxford Economics in May envisions that Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election, only receiving 35% of the popular vote, because of economic devastation stemming from the coronavirus pandemic. The model has accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections.

“Well, I don’t go by opinion polls, I go by the real polls,” Norpoth said last week during an appearance on “Lou Dobbs Tonight. “I go by what happens in the primary elections. And in those primary elections, especially in the early ones, Donald Trump did very well, and Joe Biden, as many of you may have forgotten by now, struggled in New Hampshire, where he came in fifth.”

  • Matt says:

    The only way he’s not going to win is if the crooked Democunts successfully rigg the election!?

    (They tried in 2016 and thought it was in the bag, so you can be sure they will have upped their game come November and are desperate to prevent the decades of corruption on both sides of the isle from coming out!)

    It’s never been more important to get out and vote this November, as if you don’t vote red the US is as good as dead! 🙁

  • mike dar says:

    I’d say that a modeling is happening contrary, an about face, a reversal of the standard where the Presidential candidate always picked a relatively quiet and parafunctional V.P.. I believe more than any other time in History of the U.S. the V.P. selection will make a greater difference than ever before… even the difference of whether to vote at all for many Dems. Meaning the V.P. is essentially the race… Biden certainly won’t be the general election ‘race’, the reason… were it to happen, Dems did take the Oval. Activism is the ‘word of the day’, ‘Activist’ will be the V.P. pretty sure and when Biden claims ‘Family reasons’ for abandoning the Presidency then we get stuck with a even more terrible version of Obama. As usual, Dems didn’t really in mass or toto vote for it to happen, it just ‘happens’ to happen.

  • Stephen Russell says:

    Hope so & Amen too
    This election is More viable then 2016: OUR Survival is at stake

  • Cindy says:

    Of course he’s going to win!!! He’s one of the best presidents we have ever had! He will be even better in the next 4 years because, he’s going go have a house that will be a Conservative Majority again. By doing the idiotic things they have done in the last few year, especially in the past 2 months, they have cut off their noses to spite their faces!!!

  • Pattie Kelly says:

    Juan Williams on Fox News THE FIVE is always gloating over the false fact that Biden is leading in this poll, that poll, etc. He thinks Biden will beat our President in November. When the most people that Biden can get to come to a rally is less than 500. And on a bad rally day for people to show up for our President is 6,200 and a viewing audience of over 7 million that night on Fox News the highest number of viewers in Fox News history. And that’s on a bad (yeah right) rally day for our President. Biden wishes!!!

  • Boyd says:

    Don’t get too cocky Trump! There is still a lot of work to do to keep this enthusiasm up!

  • flak says:


  • CF